The Belmont Stakes is the graveyard of Triple Crown aspirations because none of those 3-year-old horses has been asked to run that far. Ergo, there’s no track (using the term literally) record. Such is the case with the inaugural College Football Playoff. No major-college team has ever done what Ohio State and Oregon are about to do — play a January game after winning a January game.
Ergo, we can’t know how they’ll respond. The old postseason dynamics — remember how we’d say Lou Holtz was a lock with a month to prepare? — don’t apply. These teams played on New Year’s Day, and they’re about to play again. Oregon looked as sleek as a cigarette boat in the Rose Bowl, but will the Ducks take to AT&T Stadium (or, as it’s better-known, Jerry Jones’ place) in the same way?
Speaking at Saturday’s media day session, Oregon safety Erick Dargan said: “It’s a little like getting two bowls.”
It’s also not unlike what teams making a deep run in the NCAA tournament face: Much travel — Oregon and Ohio State played conference championship games, too — and different hotels and daily media briefings. Asked to make an opening statement at a press gathering Sunday, Ducks coach Mark Helfrich said: “This is our 15th opening statement of the postseason, so I’ll keep it brief.”
Oregon is favored by almost a touchdown, much of that owing to its New Year’s demolition of a Florida State team that didn’t lose in the calendar years 2013 and 2014. The Ducks ran a play every 22 seconds this season — these numbers from the Wall Street Journal — but amped that up to one every 20.2 seconds against the Seminoles. In the span of 12:54, Oregon outscored FSU 34-0 and left the reigning champion a gassed-out husk.
It’s tempting to say that a team from the ground-and-pound Big Ten could get lapped by these flying Ducks by halftime. (It was Ohio State under Woody Hayes that gave us “three yards and a cloud of dust.”) But Ohio State under Urban Meyer — who, having won two national titles at Florida, knows about championship speed — has itself become a sporty entity. In the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, the Buckeyes gained 537 yards and ran a play every 24.7 seconds.
Ohio State mightn’t have had a month to study, but the Buckeyes have learned what they’ll need to know. As defensive lineman Michael Bennett said of Oregon: “They don’t go (up-)tempo as much as everybody thinks, but when they do, they’re very effective. When they see a defensive lineman with his hands on his hips, they take advantage.”
Toward that end, Ohio State tweaked its preparation. Bennett again: “With Alabama, we had to get hyped up because it was going to be a sledgehammer game. We can’t get too hyped up for this or else we’ll start deep-breathing. The way we won the Alabama game is not going to be the way we win this game.”
That’s the nuance we’ve come to expect from a Meyer-coached team. Say what you will about the guy — that he let his Gators run rampant, that he bailed out just as the program was about to slide — but never question his capacity to seize an edge, or a moment. Helfrich used the word “icon” to describe the man seated to his left Sunday, and it seemed apropos.
That Meyer spent a few days monitoring Oregon’s preparation for the January 2013 Fiesta Bowl — he was intrigued by then-coach Chip Kelly’s go-faster system — can’t hurt his Buckeyes. “They do everything fast,” Meyer said. “That’s something we’ve beaten into our players. Not beaten, but (with) hard conversation … We have a lot of emphasis about defeating the demon that takes place when fatigue takes over.”
The best player on the field will be Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, the Heisman winner who has averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt and has thrown but three interceptions. The weakest unit will be Oregon’s defense, which ranks 84th among 125 FBS teams. That number is skewed by the Ducks’ blurry-fast pace — of their 84 touchdown drives, 41 have lasted two minutes or less — but still: No defense that bad has ever won a national title. (Auburn’s was 60th in 2010.)
As great as Oregon’s offense is, it’s not that much better than Ohio State’s. (The Ducks rank third nationally in yardage; the Buckeyes are 11th.) If anything, Cardale Jones’ ability to throw long has rounded out the Ohio State array. Guided by a No. 3 quarterback, the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin and Alabama, each of which ranks in the top 12 on defense, by the aggregate score of 101-35.
As dazzling as the Ducks can be, the belief is that Ohio State will find a dimmer switch, that Meyer will again conduct a master class of big-game coaching. “You step into a prize fight, you get one swing,” he said Sunday, “and the great champions don’t miss. That’s the mentality that we’ve preached for … really forever. That’s the way we train you. When the opportunity arises to make that play, you be ready.”
The guess here is that his Buckeyes will be. Ohio State 34, Oregon 30.
