Forsythia in bloom, clocks turned ahead an hour, the Atlanta Braves prepping in Florida ahead of a hoped-for World Series run and higher prices at the pump — all the usual signs that spring is approaching.
With refineries switching to more costly summer blends of gasoline and warmer temperatures spurring more travel, drivers in metro Atlanta and around the nation are seeing the third consecutive week of higher prices and the trend will continue, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, which tracks fuel costs. And with many Atlanta area school systems set for their spring breaks in early April, demand is likely to pick up.
“This is part and parcel of what we see every spring,” he said.
Gasoline prices in metro Atlanta averaged $3.38 a gallon on Monday morning, up about 20 cents in a week, and 23 cents in the past month, according to Gas Buddy. A year ago, prices in metro Atlanta averaged $3.20 a gallon.
And while the most immediate cause is on the supply side, where changes in blends are often preceded by maintenance shutdowns at the refineries — especially on the Gulf Coast, where Atlanta gets most of its gas — there are other factors of both supply and demand at work.
The United States has, in the past decade, become the world’s leading oil producer, accounting for 14.7% of the world’s production, according to the Energy Information Administration.
But domestic oil prices are also part of world markets. Fueled by oil prices, gas prices increased after hitting bottom — about $1.60 a gallon in Atlanta — during the first months of the pandemic when so many businesses were closed.
That steady increase turned into a spectacular spike after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. That summer, average metro Atlanta prices crested at more than $4.50 a gallon, before settling back as world markets and oil shipments continued.
Now, attacks on shipping in the Middle East along with worry about a wider war involving Iran have again added to oil prices, which account for most of gasoline’s cost. By mid-Monday, traders on global commodities exchanges had bid the price of oil to more than $82 a barrel, its highest level since October.
There’s less supply for wholesalers to fall back on and those end-of-winter inventories are another reason prices keep rising, according to Montrae Waiters, spokeswoman for AAA The Auto Club Group.
But the equation depends on demand, too.
As temperatures rise and weather improves, more cars are generally on the road, partly because vacation breaks in college and public school schedules spur holiday driving. Moreover, many companies are requiring workers to return to offices — at least part-time — after several years of pandemic-triggered remote work.
The nation uses less gasoline than before the pandemic, but the recent back-to-the-office mandates — even when they only require commuting a few days a week — have an impact when multiplied by millions of vehicles, DeHaan said. “We are using about 5 to 7% more gasoline than a year ago.”
Demand will likely keep rising: Many Atlanta area schools are on vacation the first week of April.
Even absent a geopolitical crisis that sends oil prices soaring, prices are likely to keep climbing steadily at least for a few weeks, said Gas Buddy’s DeHaan.
They usual peak comes in late April or May, he said. “But it could be a little earlier this year. That is because some refineries moved up their maintenance when there was cold weather in January.”
Gas Prices
Average gas prices per gallon, metro Atlanta
Monday, mid-day: $3.38
A week ago: $3.19
A month ago: $3.15
A year ago: $3.20
Twelve-month high: $3.68 (July 2023)
Five-year high: $4.54 (June 2022)
Ten-year high: $4.54 (June 2022)
Twelve-month low: $2.80 (November 2023)
Five-year low: $1.60 (May 2020)
Ten-year low: $1.60 (May 2020, March 2015)
Sources: Gas Buddy, Energy Information Administration, AAA-The Auto Group
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