The chief rebuilder is gone. (And not just gone. Banned for life.) The rebuild continues. Even if this has been a shocking/sobering/saddening offseason, the Atlanta Braves are, minus nine forfeited prospects, where we left them. The taint of MLB sanctions notwithstanding, we left them in a pretty good place.
They have baseball's best prospect, Baseball America having just anointed Ronald Acuna. They have, according to the same publication, three of the 10 best left-handed pitching prospects. They have eight of the top 72 prospects. (No other organization has more than six in the top 100.) John Coppolella cut corners and ruffled feathers, but he did what he set out to do – he remade a farm system. Year 4 of the great rebuild was always loosely targeted as the moment that things would begin to get good again. That can still happen.
A week before his forced resignation, Coppolella pointed to seven players who could make major-league debuts in 2018 – pitchers Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright; third baseman Austin Riley; catcher Alex Jackson and, duh, Acuna. That number didn’t count recent minor-league graduates – pitchers Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb and Max Fried; infielders Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz. All but Acuna, Albies and Camargo were acquired over the past 3-1/3 years.
Even if Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler fizzled; even if Swanson had a tepid sophomore season; even if Kevin Maitan is no longer a Braves employee … none of that negates the overall truth. This team rebuilt fast and well. Alex Anthopoulos has never suggested that he inherited an empty warehouse. The new general manager sits atop a talent base that would make any GM swoon. Anthopoulos can play this a lot of ways, and none of them would be wrong.
The Braves knew there’d come a day when they’d need to turn their arsenal of young arms into something else. (“Currency” was the word John Hart, defrocked as president of baseball operations, used.) Reports circulated last week that the Marlins have asked for Acuna in trade for Christian Yelich. That’s the obvious starting place, but that deal is never going to happen. What could is a prospect-heavy package that doesn’t involve Acuna.
This would hinge on how close Anthopoulos believes his new team is to competing for a playoff spot, and the answer could shock you. The Braves are coming off seasons of 67, 68 and 72 wins, yes. They’re also based in the National League East, which could see its best team (Washington) lose its best player (Bryce Harper) 10 months hence. The under-new-management Marlins have dumped Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon. The Phillies waited too long to reset and haven’t done it as well as the Braves. The Mets’ prized pitching was so shredded by injury that the 2015 National League champ just finished two games behind the Braves.
As bad as the Braves’ rent-a-codger rotation was at the beginning of last season; even with the seven-week absence of Freddie Freeman, who’d gotten off to an MVP-type start, and the dodgy experiment of him at third base; despite Swanson’s travails and Jim Johnson’s collapse and the second-half disappearance of the ever-expanding Matt Kemp … with all that, the 2017 Braves finished third in their division. If they improve by 10 games, they’ll be above .500. If they improve by 15, they’ll have a wild card chance. (The 2017 Rockies made the playoffs at 87-75.)
A 15-game bump would probably require a major acquisition, meaning a Yelich. But imagine this lineup: Freeman, 1B; Albies, 2B; Swanson, SS; Camargo/Ruiz, 3B; Acuna, LF; Ender Inciarte, CF; Yelich, RF; Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki, C. You could make the playoffs with that everyday eight.
The rotation is more problematic. Julio Teheran, who looked like a No. 2 starter (at worst) in 2016, pitched like a No. 4 (at best) last year. Mike Foltynewicz had a good first half. Newcomb had a strong first month. Gohara looked promising in September but, having gone from Single-A to Double-A to Triple-A to the majors in one summer, also looked weary. Fried made his big-league debut and wasn’t overmatched. Allard and Soroka will begin the year with Gwinnett.
There’s no given here: Teheran wasn’t very good last year; everyone else remains unproven. (It would still be no shock if Foltynewicz winds up as a closer.) Brandon McCarthy and/or Scott Kazmir – both acquired in Anthopoulos’ deft Kemp trade – will be needed to keep this rotation from being a total Kiddie Corps. If one of them can take a regular turn and if Teheran returns to normalcy, there are more than enough young arms to sustain a viable rotation. There are enough even if two are sacrificed to land Yelich.
With one significant addition and a tweak or two, 2018 could be the season the Braves again become winners. Don’t say it can’t happen. It just has – twice. After three years of 100-plus losses, the Astros won 70 games in 2014; the next year they won 86 and made the playoffs. The similarly rebuilding Cubs went from 101 losses in 2012 to 73 wins in 2014; the next year they won 97 and made the playoffs. Each has since won the World Series.
