The Hawks will have conflicting interests at stake when the Timberwolves and Grizzlies play tonight in Minnesota.
If the Timberwolves (45-35) beat the Grizzlies (22-58) it would increase Minnesota’s chances of making the playoffs and thus sending its 2018 first-round pick to the Hawks as part of an earlier trade. But a Grizzlies loss also would mean the Hawks (24-57) can finish no better than third in the draft lottery standings.
The Timberwolves will clinch a playoff berth tonight if they beat the Grizzlies, the Nuggets (45-35) also lose at home to the Trailblazers (48-32) and the Spurs (46-34) also beat the Kings (26-54) at home. If the Timberwolves lose tonight they still can secure a postseason spot by beating the Nuggets on Wednesday in Minnesota. If the Timberwolves miss the playoffs, the Hawks will not acquire their 2018 pick.
But a Grizzlies win against the Timberwolves is the better outcome for the Hawks because an increased chance at winning the top pick is more valuable than a pick lower in the draft. Also, if the Hawks don’t acquire Minnesota’s pick this year, they still would get the pick if the Timberwolves make the playoffs in 2019 or 2020.
If the Grizzlies win their final two games and the Hawks lose at home to Philadelphia on Tuesday, the Hawks would finish in a tie for the league’s second-worst record. The Mavericks (24-57) also can finish in a tie for second in the lottery standings.
The lottery is used to determine the top three picks in the draft, after which the remaining teams pick in reverse order of record. The team with the second-worst record (no ties) will have about a 20 percent chance of winning the lottery and will pick no later than fifth.
In the event of a two-way tie for second, each team would have a roughly 17.8 percent chance of winning the lottery; if neither team wins one of the top three picks, a coin flip decides the order in which they will select. The team with the third-worst record (no ties) will have a roughly 16 percent chance to win the lottery and pick no later than sixth.
The Suns (20-61) will finish with the league’s worst record. They will have the best odds (25 percent) of winning the No 1 pick and will select no later than fourth.
The NBA draft lottery will be conducted on May 15 in Chicago. The draft is on June 21.
There is a chance that the Hawks never acquire Minnesota’s first-round the pick, in which case they get Minnesota’s second-round picks in 2021 and 2011. Or the Hawks could end up acquiring Minnesota’s first-round during a year when the Timberwolves finish higher in the standings and the pick is lower in the draft order.
But if the Hawks don’t get Minnesota’s first-round pick this year they still would have two more chances at it. Losing out on a chance at second place in the lottery standings reduces their odds of winning the top pick now.
The Hawks acquired the future pick from Minnesota in February 2015 in exchange for Adreian Payne. The Hawks selected Payne with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2014 draft out of Michigan State. Payne played 99 games for the Timberwolves from 2014-15 to 2016-17 and this season has played five games for the Magic and 18 in the G League as a “two-way” player.
About the Author
