The Saints opened as three-point underdogs against Falcons on Sunday. The game is in Atlanta, which means the bookmakers see the teams as roughly even, but that spread seems low to me. (FiveThirtyEight.com's statistical projections, updated after Sunday's game, puts the spread at Falcons -4.5).
While the Falcons were beating the Panthers on Sunday, the Saints needed a desperate rally to beat the Cleveland Punchlines 21-18 at the Superdome. Both teams are 1-1, but the Falcons could make a decent case that they are close to being undefeated. After losing as a double-digit favorite at home and then barely winning as one, the Saints would have to talk themselves into thinking they've been any good.
They didn’t even try after beating the Browns, who last won in Week 16 of the 2016 season.
“I’m encouraged we won but let’s not kid ourselves,” Saints coach Sean Payton said.
“Everyone made plays when we needed to,” quarterback Drew Brees said. “But we also need to understand that that wasn’t good. That’s not our standard, the way we played the first three quarters offensively.”
Only the ineptitude of kicker Zane Gonzalez prevented the Browns from finally wining again. That's after Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay's old journeyman quarterback, carved up the Saints for a Week 1 victory at the Superdome. (Fitzpatrick did the same to the Eagles on Sunday, potentially setting up an interesting decision for coach Dirk Koetter when Jameis Winston returns from his three-game suspension for groping a woman.)
On the eve of the season the Saints were slight betting favorites to win the NFC South over the Falcons. Both teams lost in Week 1, and a loss is a loss, but the details — the Falcons had a chance to win at Philadelphia but blew it —moved the market to make the Falcons a slight favorite to win the South with Carolina tied with New Orleans as second betting choice.
The Falcons should be clear favorites to win the South after Week 2, which isn’t the same as saying they will do it. But only Tampa Bay has looked better and, based on Fitzpatrick’s history, his fairy dust should wear off soon (or Winston returns and ruins everything). I still think the Panthers are nothing special offensively, and the Falcons showed their defense can be had with a committed running game (the Cowboys never really did it in their Week 1 loss to Carolina).
The Falcons have some real concerns, most of all their defensive depth. Injuries to safety Keanu Neal (season-ending) and linebacker Deion Jones (out until at least Week 11) left them thin. Duke Riley, Jones' lineup replacement, had a key missed tackle against Carolina and safety Damontae Kazee got himself ejected for targeting Cam Newton.
The defense wasn't great against the Panthers, especially late, and that might be a cause for long-term concern. The unit had the makings to finally dominate this season but the injuries to Neal and Jones make that less likely. (On the bright side, safety Ricardo Allen looks to be on the come.)
The Falcons beat the Panthers because their offense came to life. Matt Ryan was back to form after he looked uncertain in Week 1. Steve Sarkisian stuck it to his haters by fashioning a plan that looked vintage 2016 Falcons: run the ball persistently, spread it around to multiple targets and hit on play-action.
In the South, only the Saints can match the Falcons for talent. They were No. 3 in the Pro Football Focus roster rankings, one spot behind the Falcons, with Carolina No. 14 and Tampa Bay No. 27. Missing Neal and Jones, both Pro Bowl selections last year, changes that calculation.
Then again, against the Panthers running backs Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith made moot the injury absence of starter Devonta Freeman. The Falcons have that much talent on offense, and if they can reach their potential most weeks, then the defense should be good enough for them to win the South.
