Got my tiebreakers, my wildcard odds.
Here is what is about to happen in the high class in the final weekend of the regular season.
For reference, here are region standings courtesy of GHSFHA.com.
Region 1 – Colquitt County (6-4, 3-0) is the No. 1 seed. Lowndes (8-2, 2-1) is the No. 2 seed. The winner of Friday’s game between Tift County (5-4, 0-2) and Camden County (2-6, 0-2) at Camden will be the No. 3 seed. If Tift loses, there is a 64.3 percent chance that Tift will make the playoffs as the wild card. If Camden loses, Camden is finished. Btw, this could be Tift’s third playoff appearance in eight seasons, and Camden’s third miss since 1988. [I assume everyone knows that four-team regions such as this get only three automatic playoff berths. All the other regions get four playoff berths. The GHSA will determine the 32nd state-playoff team based on a points system that rates Region 1’s fourth-place finisher and the seven fifth-place finishers.]
Likely – 1. Colquitt County, 2. Lowndes, 3. Tift County
Region 2 – Westlake (6-3, 4-0) is the No. 1 seed. East Coweta (7-2, 3-1) is the No. 2 seed. The winner of Friday’s game between Cobb County rivals Wheeler (4-5, 2-2) and Pebblebrook (5-4, 2-2) at Wheeler will decided third and fourth. Wheeler is a 7-point favorite, per Maxwell. Fifth-place Newnan (3-6, 1-3) has a 63.2 percent chance of getting the wildcard if it upsets arch-rival East Coweta, according to the Maxwell Ratings. But that's a big IF.
Likely – 1. Westlake, 2. East Coweta, 3. Wheeler, 4. Pebblebrook
Region 3 – McEachern (8-1, 4-0) will be the No. 1 seed with a victory Friday over Hillgrove (5-4, 3-1). McEachern is a 24-point favorite. But, if Hillgrove wins, and North Cobb (7-2, 3-1) defeats 34-point underdog Kennesaw Mountain, then the three-way tie will be settled by point differentials in region games, with a cap of 15 points per game. Currently, McEachern (differential of 52 points) leads North Cobb (30) and Hillgrove (23). Hillgrove must upset McEachern by 15 or more to have a chance, and even then, North Cobb would be the No. 1 seed with a nine-point win or better vs. last-place Kennesaw Mountain. McEachern will be the No. 1 seed if it loses by no more than six points. What’s simpler is that next week’s Marietta-North Paulding winner will be the No. 4 seed. North Paulding (6-3, 1-3) has a 76.8 percent of getting the wildcard if it loses to Marietta (3-6, 1-3) and drops to fifth. Marietta is out with a loss.
Likely – 1. McEachern, 2. North Cobb, 3. Hillgrove, 4. North Paulding
Region 4 – The winner of the Roswell-Cherokee game is the No. 1 seed, the loser No. 2. The rest is up for grabs as Walton (4-5, 1-3) plays at Woodstock (5-4, 2-2), and Etowah (4-5, 0-4) plays at Lassiter (6-3, 1-3). Head-to-head is always the first tiebreaker. In the event of a three-way tie, when head-to-head can’t break it, Region 4 uses points system that says, “Each tied team shall receive one point for each game won by their defeated opponents within region.'' So, for example, Lassiter has four points because Lassiter’s ‘’defeated opponents within the region,’’ which is Walton, has four wins. Woodstock has 10 points, Walton four, Etowah zero. We’ll let you do the math from there. But also know that this region’s fifth-place team, whoever that might be, has a very good chance of getting the wildcard.
Likely – 1. Roswell, 2. Cherokee, 3. Woodstock, 4. Lassiter, 5. Walton (wildcard)
Region 5 –Lambert (5-4, 3-1) can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory over Forsyth Central (3-5, 0-4). West Forsyth (7-2, 3-1) and South Forsyth (6-3, 3-1) are playing for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, assuming that Lambert wins as a 29-point favorite. Milton (4-5, 2-2) and North Forsyth (4-5, 1-3) are playing for the fourth seed. The South-West and Milton-North games are essentially toss-ups. Milton has about a 1-in-75 chance of getting the wildcard with a loss. North Forsyth has no shot at the wildcard.
Likely – 1. Lambert, 2. South Forsyth, 3. West Forsyth, 4. Milton
Region 6 – Mill Creek is the No. 1 seed. The Collins Hill-Peachtree Ridge game Friday will determine seeds 2-4 (assuming that 39-point favorite North Gwinnett beats Duluth). If Peachtree Ridge wins (favored by 19), then the seeds will be No. 1 Mill Creek, No. 2 Peachtree Ridge, No. 3 North Gwinnett, No. 4 Mountain View. (The tiebreaker is point differential in games among the three, with a cap of 13.) If Collins Hill wins, the seeds will be No. 1 Mill Creek, No. 2 North Gwinnett, No. 3 Mountain View, No. 4 Collins Hill. The Peachtree Ridge-Collins Hill loser is not going to get the wildcard.
Likely – 1. Mill Creek, 2. Peachtree Ridge, 3. North Gwinnett, 4. Mountain View
Region 7 – Norcross is the No. 1 seed. Brookwood is the No. 2 seed. Central Gwinnett (4-5, 3-2) and Parkview (6-3, 3-2) are playing Friday at Central for third and fourth. Lakeside (5-4, 2-3) probably would get the wildcard if the Vikings beat 37-point favorite Brookwood.
Likely – 1. Norcross, 2. Brookwood, 3. Parkview, 4. Central Gwinnett
Region 8 –Grayson and South Gwinnett play Friday for the region championship. Region 8’s tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is overall record. So, if games go as expected next week, there will be a three-way tie for second among South Gwinnett (7-2, 3-1), Newton (5-3-1, 2-2) and Archer (3-6, 20-2). So South Gwinnett would be the No. 2 seed. Then it reverts to head-to-head, and since Archer beat Newton, the seeds would be 1. Grayson, 2. South Gwinnett, 3. Archer, 4. Newton. If Shiloh (2-7, 1-3) upsets Archer (3-6, 2-2), then it would be 1. Grayson, 2. Newton, 3. South Gwinnett, 4. Shiloh.
Likley – 1. Grayson, 2. South Gwinnett, 3. Archer, 4. Newton