The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Week Ten:
- Dacula used a 27-17 victory over Grayson to replace the Rams at number two in Class AAAAAA. Similarly, Woodward Academy handed Sandy Creek their worst loss in eight years to replace the Patriots at number two in Class AAAA.
- Aside from Colquitt County, Class AAAAAA continues to be characterized by extreme parity. The difference between number one Colquitt County and number two Dacula is 22.33 points, which is roughly the difference between Dacula and number 29 Cherokee.
- Allatoona has quietly moved into the number four spot in the overall rankings as they move in on their second undefeated season in four years. After a bye week this weekend, they'll face region rival Chapel Hill in the regular season finale. Chapel Hill is currently 0-8.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 1.85%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,533 of 1,664 total games including 4 ties (92.54%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.59 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 0.88
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.