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Maxwell Week 12 Summary: Top teams carrying momentum into playoffs


The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Five top teams played for their region championship on Friday and all five earned impressive victories:

-- Grayson dominated 7-AAAAAAA runner-up South Gwinnett 45-3 to increase her lead in the ratings, which is now nearly two touchdowns over second place Roswell.  The Rams have reeled off nine straight following an opening season loss to national power IMG Academy in Florida.

-- Cartersville downed 5-AAAA runner-up Troup to the tune of 68-0.  Cartersville, the defending state champion, is currently riding a 25 game winning streak.

-- Greater Atlanta Christian crushed 7-AAA runner-up Dawson County by the score of 42-7.  The Spartans finished undefeated and look for their fifth straight quarterfinal appearance.

-- Macon County rolled past 9-1 Manchester 55-13 in the 4-A championship game.  Although the top spot in the Class A - Public ratings have bounced around, Macon County has had the lead most of the season.

-- Perhaps the most stunning result from Friday's games was ELCA's 49-0 plastering of previously undefeated region 5-A rival Landmark Christian.

- The three remaining top teams also fared well:

-- Valdosta dashed Houston County's playoff hopes, 28-24.  The Wildcats are champions of arguably the toughest region in the state and have only lost to Colquitt County, the two-time defending champion in the state's largest classification.

-- As expected, Stockbridge routed Union Grove to finshed the season unbeaten.  The Tigers' rating has been steadily increasing each week, eventually passing perinniel favorite Buford back in Week 10.

-- Benedictine rolled past Jeff Davis 48-7.  Benedictine was the only top ranked team to drop in the ratings, but they still maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over number two Fitzgerald

 

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.20%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,866 of 2,043 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.51%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.19 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.51

By Class

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.


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