The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results:
- Reversing direction twice on Friday, Roswell eventually opted to make the trek to Moultrie in spite of Hurricane Irma approaching. Colquitt County, perhaps hungry for revenge after last year's 34-3 shellacking, covered travel expenses and arranged for a police escort for the Hornets. It was well worth it for the Packers, who not only won the game but snapped Roswell's state record 221-game scoring streak that dates back to 1998.
- Cartersville continues to climb and is nearly three touchdowns better than their closest Class AAAA competitor, region rival Sandy Creek. This weekend the Purple Hurricanes dumped Westlake, one of last season's Class AAAAAAA semifinalists, by the score of 38-5. Although the ratings don't place them at the top, it gives them about an 11 percent chance to beat both Grayson and Colquitt County in back to back contests on a neutral field.
- Although not quite as impressive as Region 1-AAAAAA's 29-0 record against outside opponents back in 2014, currently Region 1-AAAAAAA is 12-1, 10-0 against Georgia teams. The only game prior to region play that any are underdogs in is when Camden County travels to McEachern on Sep 22. If the Wildcats can pull off the upset, the region could post a 26-1 record, 22-0 in-state.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.25%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 589 of 621 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.85%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.80 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 0.78
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
†-Plays non-region schedule
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
