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Maxwell Week 11 Summary: Grayson tops 100; At-Large bid in AAAAAAA narrows down


The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- With an impressive win over Hoover (Ala.), Grayson topped a rating of 100 this week, the first school to do so since Colquitt County started the season with a rating of over 100. Although the rating system generally does not weigh out-of-state opponents heavily, Hoover, like all out-of-state opponents, has a rating based on its historical performance against GHSA teams. The Buccaneers have played (and been competitive) against several of Georgia's top teams over the past few years, including most recently going 1-1 against Colquitt County in 2013 and 2014.

- While the traditional region seeding for the playoffs is settling down, the At-Large bid in AAAAAAA has basically narrowed to Regions 1, 3, and 4 (98.7% chance).

In 3-AAAAAAA, North Paulding has an 85.1% chance of defeating Marietta this weekend to lock up the number four seed. However, if they lose they would be the favorite to snatch the At-Large bid.

Similarly, Tift County has an 81.7% chance of besting Camden County for the number three seed in 1-AAAAAAA. If the Blue Devils lose they would also be competitive for the At-Large bid.

Finally, the winner of the Woodstock-Walton game (Woodstock 73.6% favorite) should lock down the number three seed in Region 4-AAAAAAA. The loser would fight it out with Lassiter and Etowah for the number four spot while all three would still be competitive for the At-Large bid.

Ultimately the modal bracket reflects North Paulding, Tift County, Woodstock, and Lassiter all securing traditional seeds while Walton secures the At-Large bid.

 

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.68%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,701 of 1,845 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.38%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.06 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.51

By Class

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.


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