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Atlanta high school sports news from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Maxwell Week 10 Summary: Grayson powers past anemic Roswell


The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- For the first time since Week 4, some team other than Roswell is at the top of the state's ratings. Roswell needed a late touchdown to edge a middling Etowah team 17-14 while Grayson rolled past Newton 34-0. As a result, Grayson is elevated into the top spot in the ratings.

- Stockbridge topped Buford by 0.03 points in the Class AAAAA ratings, making this week the first time Buford has not sat atop its classification all year. While neither had a notable performance this weekend, Buford finally played it's fifth GHSA opponent, allowing their preseason rating to more fully work it's way out of their current rating.

- Macon County takes over the Class A Public schools again. The top spot has been hotly contested during the season with four different teams bubbling up at different times. Macon County has nearly a five point lead over the number two team, Clinch County, the largest such lead of the entire season.

 

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 2.19%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,522 of 1,647 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.62%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.82 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.05

By Class

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.


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