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Atlanta high school sports news from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Maxwell Week 11 Summary: Class AAAAAA churn continues


The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Mays relatively mild 34-24 win over Alexander combined with Coffee's 37-14 victory over Valdosta has resulted in a new top-rated Class AAAAAA team for the second consecutive week. The Trojans of Coffee have a chance to solidify or lose their position when they visit the Trojans of Lee County this coming weekend. Lee County was the top-rated team in Class AAAAAA as recently as two weeks ago when they were replaced by Mays following a loss to . . . Valdosta.

- Cartersville continues to creep up on Lowndes as the highest rated team in the state. The highest rated team has come from the largest classification in all but four years since 2000. In three of those years (2007, 2010, and 2013) small-school powerhouse Buford was the highest rated team in the state while Northside (Warner Robins) took the top spot in 2006 from Class AAAA, then the second largest classification. Passing Lowndes will almost certainly involve a Viking loss, but Cartersville running the table in Class AAAA seems all but a given.  They are still rated nearly three touchdowns better than their closest competitor, Ridgeland.

 

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.63%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,714 of 1,844 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.95%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.49 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 0.99

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.


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