The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
- The ratings are fairly stable so far, but this weekend feature three of the season's top 15 matchups so there is a potential for some shake up:
-- Grayson faces McEachern in their only in-state contest until region play begins in October. Unfortunately the ratings don't put much weight on their outside contests since the scope of the ratings is only Georgia teams, however this contest should be a good gauge as to close McEachern (and Mill Creek) are to Grayson this season.
-- Colquitt, the second highest rated team in Class AAAAAAA, faces Tucker, the top rated team in Class AAAAAA. The Packers are a two-touchdown favorite in the ratings and are looking to avenge a 21-20 upset from last season.
-- Lowndes, probably the only challenger to Colquitt County for Region 1-AAAAAAA, faces Parkview, probably the only challenger to Norcross in 7-AAAAAAA. Norcross lost to Colquitt County 20-17 to open the season.
- Counting this weekend's Grayson-McEachern pairing, there are 15 games that have a 1% chance or greater of being a preview of the eventual state championship game:
Of note is that Greater Atlanta Christian has already faced and handily vanquished both of the opponents on her schedule by a combined scored of 87-21.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 53.91%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 289 of 302 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.70%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.61 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 0.36
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
†-Plays non-region schedule
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.