The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Week Nine:
- Lee County rode their 42-30 victory over Lowndes to a nearly 16-point gain in the ratings to leap from number 24 in Class AAAAAA to number 3. It was the largest gain as a result of the weekend’s result. The largest shift in the other direction was experienced by Clarkston, who fell nearly 33 points following their 32-25 loss to Cross Keys. It was Cross Keys’ 17th victory in the last 19 years.
- There are two new number ones in the ratings. Vidalia downed Benedictine 35-28 to moved pass Greater Atlanta Christian into first place in Class AA. Benedictine has only lost two games this season, the other being to Greater Atlanta Christian 24-21 in the first game of the year. Also, last weeks’ Class A number three team, Marion County, upended previous number one Hawkinsville 13-6 to open the door for Irwin County to move into first place. Irwin County had been number two.
- For the third week in a row Colquitt County turned an impressive win against a previously undefeated Region 1-AAAAAA team into a solid gain in the Maxwell ratings. Maxwell estimates that if the Packers were to play the other 63 Class AAAAAA teams 100 times each, they would suffer 75 losses in total.
- There are 28 undefeated teams left, two of which are not ranked in Maxwell's top 15 for their respective class. Kell is 7-0 at number 16 in Class AAAAA. Maxwell estimates the Longhorns have a 67.7% chance of carrying an undefeated record into the playoffs. Oconee County is also 7-0 and ranked 24th in Class AAA. Maxwell places Oconee's odds against a perfect regular season at 2,245 to 1. They play Hart County and Jefferson in the next two weeks, each of which are also undefeated.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 4.70%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,363 of 1,475 total games including 4 ties (92.54%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.28 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 0.80
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.