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Maxwell Round Two Summary: Grayson-Colquitt County, Mill Creek-McEachern headline coming weekend


The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Playoffs are always a time of exceptional match ups and the AAAAAAA quarterfinals feature two of the season's highest rated games so far. First, the top team in the state, Grayson, will face off against two-time defending state champion Colquitt County in Moultrie. Meanwhile, a semifinalist from last year, Mill Creek, squares off against McEachern, a team whose only loss was an early season game to Grayson by a field goal.

- Lowndes surprised Norcross 57-21 for the most surprising result of Round Two while Tucker made the largest gain in the ratings, nearly 8 points, after their 23-7 downing of Harrison.

 

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.11%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,022 of 2,218 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.32%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.15 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.45

By Class

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.


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