The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Round 3:
- Archer is the latest team to bubble up to #2 in Class AAAAAA, the seventh change at that position in the past seven weeks. Aside from Colquitt County, the top teams have been muddled in the ratings since early in the season. The difference between #2 Archer and #23 Camden County is 16 points, roughly the same difference between Colquitt County and Archer.
- The top two classifications have five of the six remaining bracket busters (teams that would have less than a 50% probability of surviving to this point if the tournament were to be replayed again). Newton was last week's most improbable team, but lost to Etowah over the weekend. Mays followed up a Round 2 upset over Ware County with a quarterfinal victory over Jones County to become the tournament's newest Cinderella in the playoffs.
- Below are the six bracket busters by class (Class AAAA, Class AAA, and Class AA do not have any bracket busters):
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,001 of 2,220 total games including 4 ties (90.23%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.86 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 0.84
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
### = Active playoff team; # = Eliminated playoff team
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.