The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
- Three regions completed perfect records in the first round of the playoffs, including 1-AAAAAA as it takes over again as the state's highest rated region.
- Although historically the start of the playoffs is a time of great turbulence in the ratings, the computer picked 99 of the 112 games played, or 88.4 percent. and their are few major changes among each classification's top teams. This is in large part due to the addition of the AAAAAAA classification, which shrinks the region sizes in all classifications and in turn makes the regular season schedules much more connected.
- The top 15 highest rated match ups now include two upcoming playoff games, Norcross versus Lowndes and Mays versus Lee County. Although some regular season games will probably remain, such as Grayson and McEachern, by the end of the playoffs many will be replaced by playoff games.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.12%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,965 of 2,154 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.39%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.18 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 1.49
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.