Prep Zone

Atlanta high school sports news from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Maxwell Ratings project girls tournament: Everybody has a chance

The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s state basketball tournament 1 million times. These are the results  of those computer simulations for the girls brackets in classes AA through AAAAAA, which begin Friday.

Simulations for Class A, which begins Monday, will be published next week.

See simulation for the boys state tournament.

Below, each of 160 girls teams is shown with their power ratings,  their ranking among all teams in their classification,  strength of draw in the tournament,  average depth advanced to and  number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.

The data is compiled from scores reported to MaxPreps and Georgia Prep Country as of 3 p.m. Thursday. Although attempts are made to reconcile differences in the data, there are inevitably some missing, duplicated and incorrect results.  Readers are encouraged to verify and submit corrections to those websites to improve the accuracy.

Please feel free to post any questions that you have. Loren Maxwell, creator of the Maxwell Ratings, will be available to answer them.

A few observations --

Team most likely to win – Redan wins 683,738 out of 1 million simulations in Class AAAA. Next-closest contender in AAAA is Columbia, with 74,570 wins.

Team least likely to win  – Newnan, which qualified with a 7-21 record, is a 76,778,821-to-1 shot in AAAAAA, according to Maxwell. They are one of 12 teams with odds of greater than 1 million to 1. 

Hardest class to predict – Buford, St. Pius and Washington County are each better than a 5-to-1 chance to win AAA. Washington County is undefeated (24-0) and ranked No. 1, but Maxwell favors Buford, partly because of a better draw.

An underdog? Wesleyan? – Maxwell projects Kendrick (27-0) as the most likely winner in AA with 434,406 wins. That would mean an end to Wesleyan’s streak of five state titles. Wesleyan wins 333,337 out of 1 million.

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