The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
- As most of the favored teams in each classification continue to advance, Westlake is the only Cinderella left, if even they can be considered that. The Lions were 49.16 to one odds to make it this far at the beginning of the playoffs.
- Buford retakes AAAAA off their win over Carrollton. Buford led the classification for most of the year until Stockbridge took the lead late in the season.
- Grayson's rating continues to improve, this time after their 49-21 route of two-time defending state champion Colquitt County. If the season were finished today, the Rams would have the 13th highest rating since 1948, edging out Coach Jeff Herron's 2003 Camden County Wildcats state championship team. However . . . there is at least one more tough game left to play, and most likely two, before considering them among the all-time greats.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.11%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,052 of 2,250 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.36%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.14 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 1.49
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.