The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 420 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

– Grayson edged Roswell in the Class AAAAAAA title game to earn the highest final season rating since 2004 and the 14th highest rating out of the 21,000+ GHSA football teams since 1948. A rating of 100.00 represents the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. Only 59 teams have finished with a rating of over 100.00 since 1948.

This season's Grayson team is also the highest rated Rams team ever and just 0.05 points shy of coach Jeff Herron's highest rated team, his 2003 Camden County Wildcats.

– Below are the top 35 GHSA teams since 1948. Note: the classification shown is each team’s contemporary classification, not the current equivalent classification. For a quick reference of how the GHSA classifications have evolved through time see the GHSFHA’s state champion list at http://ghsfha.org/statechamps.php?aOrgNum=1.

- The rating system did fairly well at playoff predictions this year.  During the playoffs, the computer went 195-36 (84.4%) overall.  Also, following the games in the last week of September, when most teams were still at four or five games, the modal bracket already correctly reflected 39 of the 48 region champions in AAAAAAA to AA (81.3%), 207 of the 240 playoff teams (86.3%), 47 of the 64 quarterfinal teams (73.4%), 19 of the 32 semifinal teams (59.4%), ten of the 16 finalist (62.5%), and five of the eight champions (62.5%).

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,076 of 2,274 total games including 7 tie(s) (91.45%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.25 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.49

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.