What do over/under win totals provided by sportsbooks mean?
Probably not a whole lot. But you probably want to know what Georgia Tech’s is.
The online sportsbook 5 Dimes set the Yellow Jackets’ over/under win total for the regular season at 7 ½. It’s tied for the fifth highest total in the ACC and third in the Coastal. One would think that Tech’s difficult nonconference schedule is a factor, in addition to a sense that perhaps Tech’s 11 wins in 2014 were a bit of an outlier.
North Carolina (8) seems a little high. The Tar Heels play South Carolina (neutral), North Carolina A&T, Illinois and Delaware (all three at home) in the nonconference, but the Tar Heels have had one winning season in ACC play since the league went to two divisions in 2005.
I might go with the over on Syracuse (4 ½). The Orange start with Rhode Island, Wake Forest and Central Michigan, all at home. They’d just have to find two more wins the rest of the way on a schedule that includes South Florida, Virginia, Pittsburgh and Boston College.
As for Tech, I’ll withhold my opinion. It’s interesting, though, that preseason over/under lines (at least the ones I could find) have been off by at least 1 1/2 wins each of the past five years. However, based on the over/under totals for the ACC in 2014 (below), it would appear that that’s usually the case.
14: 6 1/2 Ten wins (in the regular season). Not a bad beat.
13: 8.5 Seven wins. The highest over/under total dating back to 2010.
12: 8 Six wins. I guess bookmakers didn’t foresee two losses in overtime and another to Middle Tennessee State.
11: 6 Eight wins. Not much confidence after a six-win season in 2010, but the Jackets had that number beaten before November.
10: 7 ½ Six wins. You’d have thought it’d be higher after the ACC championship season, but it turned out to be too high.
2014 over/under totals for the ACC, courtesy of the estimable online sportsbook BetVega.