Georgia Tech Blog

A sports blog about the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Tech's CFP chances from No. 11?

Time to break out the Jim Carrey Youtube clips – Georgia Tech has a chance.

According to the blog fivethirtyeight, operated by statistician Nate Silver, Tech has a 1 percent chance of making it into the four-team field for the College Football Playoff.

The assessment was based on 10,000 simulations of the weekend’s games. No. 11 Tech is given a 36 percent chance of winning. The Jackets would need help after that. In one possible scenario, Tech might have a chance if No. 1 Alabama beat No. 16 Missouri in the SEC title game, No. 2 Oregon beat No. 7 Arizona, No. 3 TCU beats Iowa State, No. 5 Ohio State loses to No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 6 Baylor. The win probability website gives all six results falling in this pattern a 3 percent chance of probability.

In this case, the nos. 4, 5, 6 and 7 teams will have lost. No. 8 Michigan State and No. 10 Mississippi State are idle, not having qualified for their conference title games. Tech could leapfrog the Spartans and Bulldogs on the strength of beating the No. 4 team in the country for the ACC championship. Then, Tech would have to be judged against Florida State (12-1 in this scenario), Ohio State (11-2), Baylor (10-2), Arizona (10-3) and Kansas State (10-2), all of whom except for Kansas State will have just lost and none of whom could claim a conference championship, again except for Kansas State.

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About the Author

Ken Sugiura covers Georgia Tech sports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.