Georgia Tech Blog

A sports blog about the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Projection: Georgia Tech most likely to finish 7-5

Georgia Tech is most likely to finish 7-5 and has a 70 percent chance of finishing somewhere between 8-4 and 6-6, according to one projection.

The forecast is based on Fremeau Efficiency Index, a rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. The FEI metrics forecast a 23 percent chance of finishing 8-4, a 27 percent chance of going 7-5 and a 20 percent chance of finishing at 6-6.

The full forecast was in a tweet from Fremeau on Wednesday.

Other pearls from Fremeau’s website:

Tech’s strength of schedule is ranked 27th in the country.

Among Tech’s games against FBS opponents, its most likely win is Vanderbilt (86.4 percent) and its least likely victory is Georgia (16.0 percent).

The schedule:

If the Jackets were to win the games it had a better than 50/50 probability, they would finish 6-6.

Fremeau said that returning productivity is taken into account into the forecasts, but coaching changes are not. Further, Tech’s past two seasons speak directly to the fact that what actually happens in games doesn't  always follow the most probable projections.

In the end, it's a projection no different than the preseason AP poll, albeit one with biases fully removed and perhaps more weight given to strength of schedule.

What do you think?


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About the Author

Ken Sugiura covers Georgia Tech sports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.