The Hawks have no All-Star players. The veterans added since last season are either no longer full-time NBA starters or never were. First-year general manager Travis Schlenk has promised that the Hawks will be competitive but will “live with the results” as they build for the future.
Those are among the reasons why statistical projections, NBA pundits and betting markets all expect the Hawks to be among the worst two or three teams in the NBA in 2017-18. The Hawks’ 10-season playoff streak, second-longest in the NBA behind the Spurs, is in jeopardy. A finish in the draft lottery appears likely.
That’s the talk among NBA observers. Internally, the Hawks are saying something different.
“I think we can be a scary team,” Hawks guard Malcolm Delaney said. “The one thing is, everybody has been positive. We don’t listen to what everybody is saying — of course we use it as motivation, I see everything that people say — but nobody here doesn’t think we can’t get in the playoffs. We are all confident. Everybody is hungry.”
The Hawks say they have a plan that will allow them to exceed the low expectations.
They will play faster, create space for drivers with a new offensive style and bother opponents with their spirited defensive effort. They will seek to minimize their disadvantages in offensive talent and experience while maximizing their assets: athleticism and youthful energy.
“I think there is a lot of positives with how we are playing and how we are competing on both ends of court,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said during the preseason. “If we are going to exceed expectations, that’s how it’s going to happen.”
The Hawks have been a good defensive team for nearly all of Budenholzer’s time as coach. But they had a bottom-three NBA offense last season and even worse after the All-Star break. And now three of the best offensive players from that team are gone: Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard and Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Hawks plan to be a more perimeter-oriented offensive team, with point guard Dennis Schroder as the focus. Last season was Schroder’s first as a full-time starter, and he was up to the task. His greatest talent is his ability to get past defenders to the basket, and last season Schroder improved his shooting on mid-range jumpers and 3-pointers.
The Hawks plan to make extensive use of offensive sets that involve all five players stationed around the perimeter while using quick passes and cut. The idea is to create space to drive for Schroder, Delaney and the wing players and allowing them the freedom to do so.
“The lane is wide open,” Schroder said. “The guards can attack in transition offense. I kind of like it. I can be aggressive, try to look to score, drive the basketball and try to get open shots (for teammates).”
There’s some question as to whether the Hawks have enough shooting to spread the floor. They have two established 3-point shooters in the front court (Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala) and two on the wings (Marco Belinelli and Luke Babbitt).
But Ilyasova is the only player of those four projected to play starters’ minutes. He’s an above-average 3-point shooter and guard Kent Bazemore is about average. Schroder and Taurean Prince are below-average and Dewayne Dedmon has one 3-point attempt in 224 career games (he plans to start shooting them this season).
Budenholzer said shooting isn’t necessarily a weakness for the projected starting lineup.
“No, especially if Dewayne can shoot the ball,” he said. “Dennis is improving as a shooter. I think ‘Baze’ and Taurean are going to have good years.”
The Hawks hope they can create open outside shots by driving to the basket and forcing the defense to react. The Hawks had some success with that approach during five exhibition games this preseason and also had good results by playing faster.
The Hawks ranked 10th in pace last season (possessions per 48 minutes), their second-highest finish among Budenholzer’s four seasons. But NBA tracking stats show that their offensive touches of less than two seconds declined significantly over the past two seasons, and the Hawks had a big drop in transition possessions last season.
During exhibition games, the Hawks quickly moved the ball up court seeking fast-break opportunities. They also sought out chances to drive to the basket early in possessions, before all five defenders could get set.
“We had to play through Paul and we had Dwight at the center down low,” Delaney said of last season. “You had to slow it down. You couldn’t run as much. Compared to this year, it’s night and day how fast we can get the ball up court, how often we attack from those 45 degree angles and how much freedom we have for everybody to pretty much attack. We’ve got a lot of young, athletic guys who can get in the paint.”
While the Hawks figure out their new offensive identity, their defense figures to be solid as usual.
The Hawks have ranked sixth or better in defensive efficiency over the past three seasons. Except for Belinelli, the players the Hawks added since last season are at least solid on defense. Budenholzer has proved than he can fashion cohesive defensive units that include weak links.
The Hawks generally were effective on defense during the exhibition games while playing an energetic and scrappy style.
“If a guy gets beat, instead of thinking ‘Should I be there?' just go,” Bazemore said. “If you go, then the guy behind you rotates and that’s kind of how we do it, by committee. We’ve shown some good flashes of being a great, solid defensive team early in the preseason. Obviously, we need to score more but that will come over time.”
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