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American Idol Blog
4/22: Declining ratings, use of instruments, going first
By: Rodney Ho | April 22, 2008, 2:50AM EST

jason castro instrument.jpg

The addition of instruments has been a boon in particular for two contestants still in the running: Brooke White and Jason Castro. Both are far more comfortable (especially Brooke) behind a guitar or piano. David Archuleta has worked the piano and David Cook, the guitar. But it seems both can handle the stage with just a mike without too much pain. Castro has survived without the guitar but still seems more at home with it. Brooke’s attempt without the guitar or piano during that Beatles week was a minor disaster and she even admitted it.

If they had to adhere to the old “no instruments” rule, would their charisma and sweetness have kept them in the running to this stage? I have a feeling Brooke wouldn’t have even made it to the top 24.

-And the buzz about “Idol’s” declining ratings, which I have chronicled in bits and pieces all season, goes up a notch with this Los Angeles story.. Younger viewers are bailing at a faster rate than the overall viewership, which is typical of an aging show. Among 18 to 34 year olds, this past Wednesday’s results show had its lowest ratings since season two. The fact is most shows start losing steam between seasons five and seven and “Idol” is following suit.

Question: how much time does “Idol” have left? “E.R.” lost buzz six to eight years ago yet it’s still on, drawing just 8 million viewers last Thursday - yet it will have one more season, a 15th. “Survivor” is only drawing 12 to 13 million viewers a week, down from 20 million just three years ago—the show’s first 10 incarnations actually held up well and the slide only began with Guatemala in the fall of 2005. Yet it’s in its 16th edition in its eight year and has been renewed for two more cycles, guaranteeing 18 versions. “America’s Next Top Model” has only started showing a slide in ratings this spring in its 10th edition. (In both those cases, the shows operate two editions a year, while “Idol” only does one.)

At what point in viewership will Fox pull the plug? At this point, the show has a long way to drop before that even becomes a question. I’d guess if average viewership drops below 9 million, then it will probably be close to retirement. And when Simon Cowell leaves, will that hasten the exodus?

Realistically, I think “Idol” can last through 2010 no problem. I figure Simon will stick around until then but after he bails, the show may only have three more seasons left, depending on who replaces him. So I can picture the final time Ryan Seacrest crowns an “Idol” sometime in 2013 or 2014. That would mean the show will have lasted 12 or 13 seasons. That’s very respectable for any telecast.

And how long will this blog last? Well, I can’t imagine it will last that long. Readership is down big time over last year and there is nothing much I can do about that. Casual interest isn’t as strong as it was even a year ago and those are the types who drive up traffic. I’m just glad I was around to capture season five, which can now be considered the peak of the show in terms of its popularity and power.

-We already knew this but someone actually calculated it: going first is a big disadvantage. Michael Johns went first and that may have caused his departure. Out of 69 eliminations, 20 folks going first were voted out, far greater than chance. Going seventh is the most charmed spot. The stats were tracked by USA Today here.. We know that viewership is lower earlier in the show and memories fade by the time the show is over.

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