I made a few timid predictions a year ago and actually got a couple sort of right. Let’s see how I do for 2008:

1- Let’s start easy. Last year, I made a rather prescient prediction about ratings finally falling after five amazing years of upward motion. Okay, so it was going to have to happen eventually so it wasn’t exactly a forehead-slapping prediction. In fact, the ratings opened big last year with 37 million viewers, the best ever. But the numbers flagged later in the season as ennui set in over the season six contestants. I think last year may cause millions to disappear from the get go, even with the writers strike. I bet the opener will be more like 30 million and I predict the show will drop at least 10 percent over a year ago and the younger viewers will flee even faster. That will still make “Idol” by far the biggest show in the land but will indicate some folks have gotten bored enough to move on as we enter season seven.

2- Although there won’t be as many celebrity “mentors” as last year, the producers will still nab a couple of big ones such as Mariah Carey, Steven Tyler and James Taylor.

3- Simon Cowell will become ill and miss an episode for the first time ever. Nigel comes in and covers for him.

4- One of the final 12 will be openly gay and “Idol” won’t hide that fact, which will generate some controversy though probably no more than Fantasia and the single mom bit a few years back.

5- Here’s another easy guess. This group of 12 will be much more interesting than last year’s. While I can’t see it being as cool as the best top 12 ever from season five, it will be comparable to season four.

6- The winner will be from the Midwest and will be a guy. (Hey, at least I have something like a 50/50 shot on that second prediction, eh?)