Braves compounded Olivera blunder by acquiring Kemp

Braves left fielder Matt Kemp. (Chad Rhym/Chad.Rhym@ajc.com)

Credit: Michael Cunningham

Credit: Michael Cunningham

Braves left fielder Matt Kemp. (Chad Rhym/Chad.Rhym@ajc.com)

Braves general manager John Coppolella long ago admitted that he made a mistake in acquiring Hector Olivera (and that was before Alex Wood became a Dodgers All-Star). Now it’s clear that Coppolella compounded that error by later trading Olivera to the Padres for Matt Kemp, who is giving the Braves replacement-level-at-best production for much more money than they owed Olivera.

Kemp has produced a Weighed Runs Created plus of 109 this season, slightly above the MLB average. He produced the same 109 WRC+ in 2016 and 2015. All indications are that Kemp is just an OK hitter now, and his frequent hamstring issues don't bode well for the durability of a slugger who turns 33 in September.

Factor in Kemp's poor defense in left field , and the picture is even uglier. This season Kemp has a FanGraphs WAR of 0.1, which translates to a $400,000 value on the free-agent market. The Braves are paying Kemp $18.25 million this season (that's after what the Padres are paying) and he's also owed that much in each of the the next two years.

Yikes.

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The Braves were desperate to get rid of Olivera. He had shown little indication he could be a major leaguer and had been suspended 82 games for violating MLB’s domestic-violence policy. Instead of releasing Olivera outright and eating the money, Coppolella took on more cash for a declining outfielder still being paid like an All-Star.

The Braves sold the trade as acquiring Kemp for $8.5 more annually than they were paying Olivera. That's a classic sunk-cost fallacy. In reality the Braves are paying $54 million from 2017-19 for Kemp, who is worth much less, instead of giving Olivera his $28.5 million to go away.

That would have put the Olivera blunder in the past. Instead that mistake continues to haunt the Braves as Kemp gives them decent offense and bad defense for star money.

What's more, super outfield prospect Ronald Acuna is knocking at the door. The Braves likely will have a hard time finding another team to take on Kemp and all of his salary. (I also doubt they’d have much luck moving Nick Markakis and his $11 million salary for 2018.)

The Braves had high hopes for Kemp after he surged on offense for them last season. Kemp showed up to spring training this year in better shape and started strong at the plate. But then Kemp’s hamstrings starting flaring up. He's had two DL stints (29 games) and has been clearly hobbled for much of his time in the lineup.

Kemp has been better at the plate since returning from the DL last week. But he'd have to be a much better hitter to offset his defense. As it is, the Braves could have gotten Kemp's production for pennies on the dollar.

Coppolella would have been better off cutting ties with Olivera without taking on more money for Kemp. Better for the GM to lose face than waste more money.